Google Will Impress

Tags: Google, GOOG
20 Apr 12:54am

Google Inc.

GOOG (NASDAQ)

Forecast has expired Ended: Friday April 28, 2006

Target

$415.00 and above

$4.50 (1.1%)

Time Span:2wks and below

Final

$267.25

-$143.25 (34.9%)

Recommendation

Rating:Buy

Risk:Aggressive

Stop Loss Price:$405.00

Final XP: 162

Target not reached

Analysis

This is a bit risky, as GOOG is very news sensitive - as shown last quarter, just a little let down can send the stock price plunging down double digit percentages.

Before you read on: This is intended as a short term trade (ie: hold < 2 weeks), intended to take advantage of the mob mentality. Remember, this is not a long term portfolio recommendation. Continuing on, I'm saying buy, and keep a really tight watch. This hinges on Google's Q1 earnings report, and the direction the price goes will snowball from there. If it's a bad result, let go of this right away I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that Google won't let down investors this quarter.

Three reasons:

  1. Yahoo just hit their mark, showing some positive figures about the internet ad market in general which bodes well for Google.
  2. I don't think Google would have issued 5.3 million shares so close to their Q1 report if they didn't have something good going for them.
  3. Google still has room to expand in the search and internet ad markets - with China open, I think there is enough perceived growth potential there for investors to keep their overly lofty optimism about Google's future growth. The good report (if it turns out to be) will add fuel to the crazed bullish expectations and push up the stock price further. Might as well cash in on the mob/analyst hysteria while you can.

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Sounds reasonable.. I'll give your point a shot
Posted on Apr 20, 2006 @3:03am
Why don't you buy some?
Posted on Apr 20, 2006 @3:06am
Haha, I am definitely planning to, Sainox. Just that I don't have enough cash right now and I'm going to have to release one of my current positions first!
Posted on Apr 20, 2006 @3:09am
Wow you're well on your way to getting this forecast right!
Posted on Apr 23, 2006 @8:26pm
What do you mean by "taking advantage of the mob mentality". I've read that almost all analysts watching Google have a one year target price of at least $475 and as much as $800. I'm sure that they know what they are talking about.
Posted on Apr 25, 2006 @2:19am
pantomime: i'm sure analysts know how to value stocks - unfortunately what analysts *report* is a different matter altogether, and is often affected by political factors and other biases. I'm not saying they are always like that, just that the average investor shouldn't base their decisions 100% on what analysts say. Remember, many analysts are employed by investment banks - the stocks they report on are oftentime their clients! See my entry about Intel that illustrates this better.
Posted on Apr 27, 2006 @5:43am
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